NCHC Frozen Faceoff Starts Today

@afiskness Gives His Analysis and Picks

The NCHC Frozen Faceoff has arrived, beginning later today in Minneapolis at the Target Center.  For the second year in tournaments existence the Bulldogs did not earn the right to play in the house of Da Kid.  This year though, the season is not over for UMD like last year since the Bulldogs will be in the NCAA playoffs.  

The Bulldogs this year have been up and down.  The first half of the season the team played quite well and scored at will.  The second half of the season the team struggled at times and was shutout in three games.  In fact since Christmas their record is 8-9-3.  Thankfully before Christmas the team played so well which kept their pairwise ranking high.

Now for this year's Frozen Faceoff any of the four teams have a chance to win as this is a very balanced field.  North Dakota is again the favorite, but the neutral ice will be a different environment then they are used to playing in.  I expect to see Saint Cloud jazzed up for their two games knowing that their NCAA playoffs are on the line.  Whereas the other three teams truly do have less at stake. 

An interesting byline in these conference tournaments will be attendance.  My guess is there will be nowhere close to a sell out at Target Center, Xcel Energy or Joe Lewis Arena this weekend for any game.  The Thursday night games at the Joe saw announced attendance of about 3,500 people.  

Picks

Saint Cloud State vs. North Dakota:  It is hard to pick against North Dakota but I think the Huskies really want this.  This game should have pretty good attendance even though it is the afternoon game and will mostly feel like a home crowd for North Dakota.  I will pick an upset with the Huskies winning.

Miami vs. Denver:  This is a rematch of last year’s championship game.  Denver has played really good hockey recently, but my gut says Redhawks. This year I think the Redhawks will get revenge and earn the right to play in the Championship game.

Third Place:  If my picks are right this will be two uninterested teams as both Denver and North Dakota have nothing to play for.  I will say this ends in a tie.

Championship:   I like the Redhawks to get past the Huskies and get the autobid to the NCAAs. 

Post Break-up Landscape of College Hockey is Good

No Matter Who is to Blame, WCHA and NCHC are Benefitting

College hockey in the west became very wild two years ago when the WCHA broke up and CCHA disappeared.

The just completed regular seasons have proven that teams in the west can survive and thrive.  Currently in the PWR, the NCHC and WCHA have eight teams ranked in the top 16 including spots 1-5.

It may not have been the way that some school would want change to occur, but Minnesota State Mankato and Michigan Tech cannot be unhappy with their first and second place finishes respectively in the WCHA.  MSUM is currently #2 in the PWR and MTU #5.

The top rankings of WCHA teams is not from easy opponents either.  MSUM has played the 13th ranked strength of schedule (SOS) and owns the best overall winning percentage in the nation at 0.7714 (26-7-3).

Likewise, MTU has taken the schedule given and run with it achieving a 27-8-2 record, third best in the nation at 0.7473 winning percentage.  Now with the first home playoff series since 1993, MTU is on the verge of taking the next step to the WCHA Final Five and likely onto the NCAA Tournament.  A trip to the NCAA's would be the school's first since 1981.

On the other side of the West's story is the NCHC, arguably the most powerful conference in the nation.  Currently the NCHC is working on their sixth team in the top 16 of the PWR.  Most likely all six will not make it, but there is the distinct possibility that five will make the NCAA's.

The depth of the league is most demonstrated by Minnesota Duluth who is currently on the road at Denver for the first round of the NCHC Playoffs despite currently holding the #4 PWR position.  Fans around the western region have questioned the PWR math, but the SOS of the NCHC teams make it a reality.

The eight teams of the NCHC hold the top eight SOS positions in the nation.  The strength of the conference lies in the success of the members in non-conference games and the even play in conference.

Going into the last weekend of NCHC conference play, UMD had the chance to be anywhere from second to fifth.  Even with a win on the weekend, coupled with a loss, the Bulldogs still found themselves in fifth again a testament to the strength of the NCHC.

There continues to be banter and "inside knowledge" of big changes forthcoming in college hockey west, right now the WCHA and NCHC are basking in the limelight of conferences that came out of the fray in good shape and getting stronger.

DU Beats UMD 4-3: The "Goal" and the Season Opinions

UMD Allows Come-From-Ahead-Loss to DU 4-3

I am tired of the high road.  We tell the kids and the whiners that officials don't decide games, the players do.  How the players respond to situations and use their talent.

On Friday night in Denver, I have never been so sick of that high road on officiating mantra.

Ty Loney netted a hattrick with the third goal being the game winner.  The part of that last goal that sticks with me is the call.  It was a redirection by Loney of a Quentin Shore shot that appeared to be with a high stick.  Upon extended review by the officials, it was ruled a goal.

Upon re-review the next morning, I am still sick to my stomach watching the "goal."  Partial, yes, but this one looks easy.  What should make it an even easier no-goal call was watching Loney's reaction after the play.

When you score a hat trick and goal that gives your team their first lead of the game, you are going to celebrate.  Loney's first move was to look right at the official nearest him and skate off slowly, arms at his sides.  Signs that he knew his stick was high?  Yes.  He didn't even try to sell that it was a goal.

As he stood at the bench waiting for the review, you could see Loney's expression of growing confidence.  Like when you know you are getting a big break, a benefit of the doubt.  

Loney should not apologize for the goal nor should he go and admit that he believes it was a high stick, it is just one of this instances where the officials get in the way of the game.  Nothing was in the bag for UMD or DU at the time, so the Bulldogs could have lost anyway.  That is just not the way any team should have to lose a game.

Additionally, it would have been the second disallowed goal for the home team in the game.  If that had any bearing on the decision, it is ridiculous.  In fact I feel ridiculous writing it, but that thought crept in my mind last night and I haven't been able to shake it.

Trend or Mirage.  For the second time in Bulldog history, they went a whole regular season without being swept in a series.  The other being the National Championship season.

Through the wins, losses, and ties, the Bulldogs have built a resume that will most likely get them into the NCAA Tournament.  But does this feel like a team that has the fortitude to succeed in the playoffs?

Since the calendar turned to 2015, it is difficult to find that stretch of more than a game where the team looked the part of #4 in the PWR, currently a #1 see in an NCAA Regional.

There are players missing, especially now, but it has never felt like the team to beat.  The downside has seemingly always been greater, especially today.  Coming off the 3-0 lost at Western last Saturday with the captain Adam Krause's suspension for kneeing into last night's come from ahead loss that happened AT Denver because UMD could not finish in the top half of the conference, it may be a dour time for Bulldog fans.

Yes, UMD won a National Championship in 2011, but fans memories fade and tend to remember just the last games.  Hopefully, the 2014-15 Bulldogs can forget all that has happened and play in a new day today.