Friday, February 25, 2022

Tipping Point

We hear about the tipping point when a major change is afoot. A looming event has been building for a while, but not clear when it will arrive… until it does, in the drop of a hat. 

Are we at a possible tipping point with UMD Hockey and their NCAA aspirations? The easy answer is no. Many may look at their quality wins through the season and see all the positives they bring. Spitting the season series with Denver, sweeping Minnesota, and going 2-0-1 against Western Michigan are all feathers in the Bulldog cap. At the same time there is also the 15-13-4 record that came about from their fair share of losses and ties.

The PairWise (PWR) looks at it all, in a mathematical way, and have put UMD currently at #8. Is there a tipping point looming if UMD doesn’t earn their first series sweep of the NCHC schedule? The inconsistent play by the Bulldogs, often involving missing players due to illness and injury, has come to a head here at the end of the season.

Playing with the PWR for UMD’s last four games, keeping on the same track of not sweeping opponents could leave UMD right at the double digit mark of the PWR, not the safest of spots going into the NCHC playoffs to get passage into the NCAA Tournament.

Speculation, yes, but possibilities of a tipping point are real. To end speculation quickly, a sweep this weekend by the Bulldogs over the Redhawks would be the best medicine. UMD can then tackle the next hurdle, home ice in the playoffs.